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What's the probability of dying from coronavirus if I get it?
The case fatality rate (deaths/cases) or CFR after contracting COVID-19 is 2.3% overall, based on data from the most comprehensive study of actual cases in China through February 11, 2020. However, the rate varies most significantly on age and pre-existing conditions. The study (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32064853?fbclid=IwAR3JCxH50VTfg3Q_02YTLdz2Tk7yBTmt-5oCxE4KlBe0evh7ByK3HPVU-pU) was conducted by Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention on 44,672 confirmed COVID-19 cases in China. It provided overall CFRs for each age group and pre-existing condition (displayed in blue in our chart). We used this data to provide a crude probability of death by age & pre-existing condition, in the absence of more official estimates.
Other fatality rate estimates have emerged since, including the 3.4% from the WHO as of March 3, 2020. As such, the probabilities displayed should be scaled according as better estimates emerge.