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What's the probability of dying from coronavirus if I get it?

The case fatality rate (deaths/cases) or CFR after contracting COVID-19 is 2.3% overall, based on data from the most comprehensive study of actual cases in China through February 11, 2020.  However, the rate varies most significantly on age and pre-existing conditions.  The study ( was conducted by Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention on 44,672 confirmed COVID-19 cases in China.  It provided overall CFRs for each age group and pre-existing condition (displayed in blue in our chart).  We used this data to provide a crude probability of death by age & pre-existing condition, in the absence of more official estimates.

Other fatality rate estimates have emerged since, including the 3.4% from the WHO as of March 3, 2020.  As such, the probabilities displayed should be scaled according as better estimates emerge.

Recent Interesting Reports

Mountain Meadow Herbs of Somers, MT is recalling 54 bottles (total 240 capsules per bottle) of Mountain Meadow Herbs brand Candida Flush, Lot# 0120011Q. Some bottles from this Lot have become pressurized over time in storage. When opened, the product may forcefully expel air as well as... See More portions of capsules and powder. This may result in customers sustaining injuries to their hands and eyes, which may require medical attention.

Product was distributed to retailers in IN, MN, MT, NY, TN and in Ontario of Canada.
Product was sold directly to consumers in IN, KY, MN, MO, MT, NE, OH, PA, VA, and WI. The affected Candida Flush has the UPC 8 13086 01593 2, Lot #012001l Q, Exp 12/22.

No illnesses or serious injuries have been reported to date. The recall was the result of an internal investigation stemming from a customer complaint which revealed that the finished products were becoming pressurized over time.

This recall is being made with the knowledge of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. If you have any of these products, please dispose of them immediately.

Company name: Mountain Meadow Herbs
Brand name: Mountain Meadow Herbs
Product recalled: Candida Flush
Reason of the recall: Due to exploding bottle risk
FDA Recall date: November 17, 2021

Check the full recall details on

Source: FDA
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Nutrisure Ltd is recalling Naturya Hemp Protein Powder because it contains gluten, which is not mentioned on the label. This means the product is a possible health risk for anyone with an allergy or intolerance to gluten. This batch was only sold in Sainsbury’s stores.

Naturya Hemp... See More Protein Powder (100g)
Pack size: 100g
Batch code: W02135
Best before: end of March 2024
Allergens: Gluten

If you have bought the above product and have an allergy or intolerance to gluten, do not eat it. Instead, return it to the store from where it was bought for a full refund.

Company name: Nutrisure Ltd
Product recalled: Naturya Hemp Protein Powder
FSA Recall date: 11/30/2021

Check the full recall details on

Source: FSA
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International Golden Foods, Inc (IGF) of Bensenville, IL is voluntarily recalling certain lot codes of the Al kanater brand tahini because it has the potential to be contaminated with Salmonella, an organism which can cause serious and sometimes fatal infections in young children, frail or elderly people... See More and others with weakened immune system. Healthy persons infected with Salmonella often experience fever, diarrhea (which may be bloody), nausea, vomiting and abdominal pain. In rare circumstances, infection with Salmonella can result in the organism getting into the bloodstream and producing more severe illnesses such as arterial infections (i.e., infected aneurysms), endocarditis and arthritis.

The product was distributed nationwide and is sold in 16 Oz. jars. The jars are labelled “Al kanater Tahini.” Lot codes are printed on the jar. Product code, description, lot code, and UPC information are noted below.

Product Code: AT1LB
Product Description & Size: Al kanater Tahini Sesame Paste 1 lb. (454 gr)
Lot #: TT4N‐201127
UPC: 6‐92551‐00002‐0

No illnesses have been reported to-date in connection with the Al Kanater Brand Tahini.

This problem was revealed as a result of a random sampling by the Michigan Department of Agriculture.

Consumers who have purchased Al kanater Tahini with these lot codes should discontinue use and return it to the store of purchase for a full refund. Retailers that may have further distributed the recalled lot codes should share this notice with their customers.

Company name: International Golden Foods, Inc.
Brand name: Al Kanater
Product recalled: Tahini
Reason of the recall: Salmonella
FDA Recall date: November 30, 2021

Check the full recall details on

Source: FDA
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Nutracap Holdings, LLC of Norcross, Georgia is voluntarily recalling various dietary supplements due to undeclared milk on the labels. People who have an allergy or severe sensitivity to milk run the risk of serious or life-threatening allergic reaction if they consume products containing milk. There have been... See More no illnesses reported to date.

During a recent FDA inspection, the firm was notified that their labels failed to disclose the presence of milk on some of their products.

The recalled products were shipped between January 2020 through November 2021 to distributors and retailers in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.

The full list of affected products is on the link below.

Lot numbers and expiration dates are found on the bottom of each container.

Retailers and distributors who have received any of these products should check inventory, immediately remove from sale and notify customers who purchased them of the recall. Nutracap will be providing corrective label stickers for product remaining in stock. Affected consumers who have purchased these products are urged to return them to the place of purchase for a full refund or they may discard the product. Your assistance is appreciated and necessary to prevent consumer illness.

Company Announcement Date: November 12, 2021
FDA Publish Date: November 12, 2021
Product Type: Food & Beverages. Allergens
Reason for Announcement: Undeclared Milk
Company Name: Nutracap Holdings, LLC
Brand Name: Multiple brands
Product Description: Dietary Supplements

Check the full recall details on the FDA website:

Source: FDA
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I shipped Priority Express on Nov 15 to Essex Junction, VT and after two days it is still showing arrived at Teterboro Distribution Center, Industrial Avenue, Teterboro, NJ, USA on 11/15/2021 at 9:22pm. It should be delivered by Nov 16 at VT See Less

Usually is fine. Not this time. I decided to burn Nag Champa incense to meditate. As I was meditating, our dog started sniffling and then began throwing up large amounts of mucous. Her lips were swollen and pulled back slightly. She is ok now, but I've never... See More experienced anything like this using incense before this happened. I often use it for meditation. I called the vet who confirmed this is an allergic reaction and they informed me to monitor her and ensure she is safeand healthy, not vomiting anymore. They instructed me to open all the windows and doors, turn on ceiling fans,and run the furnace heat to pull remaining particulate into the HEPA filter on the furnace and then to replace the filter tomorrow to ensure it doesn't just recirculate the particulate if any happens to get through. Also said to wash hard surfaces in the room it was burned on and vacuum up any furniture,carpet, or rugs there to remove any settled particulate. I'm not sure what went wrong here. I've never had this happen with her or any other dog when burning this.

But even I am sniffling and nauseous after having burned it and my throat is sore. I took benedryl to
prevent an attack in me personally.

Nag Champa incense sticks.
Label information: Nag Champa Agarbatti Satya Sai Baba. Mfrs. Shrinivas
Sugandhalaya(BNG)LLP.1/9,8th Cross, Magadi Road, Bengaluru-560023, India. Certified green
product. Export Quality.2021 Series. Hand Rolled in India. UPC 8904245400491.Warning: insist for this label to avoid imitation buy from reputed dealers only. Earth. Contains seals with hologram over each side of the box with official logo. NetWt.40g. Quality assurance labels are not actual stickers demonstrating actual checks, but are instead printed onto the package to appear as if they were actual quality assurance stickers and are offset with a white background to trick a consumer. There are three which areas follows. Fake QA sticker1: Quality Assurance Management ISO 9001(check mark symbol)
Fake QA sticker2: Environmental Management ISO 14001(check mark symbol) Fake QA sticker 3: Occupational Health &
Safety OHSAS 45001 (check mark symbol).
Customer care number+917022000111

Item purchased at Archimage. Not their fault. They only buy reputable authentic items and this has to be a bad or contaminated batch here. | Symptoms: Nausea, Other
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DreamBone Twist Sticks are making my dogs vomit. They were purchased from

I have been giving our dogs Dream Sticks with no problem. Three of our dogs started vomiting this morning and two have continued vomiting throughout the day. Our Pyrenees-Lab has vomited six times so... See More far today and STILL pieces of DreamBone Twist Sticks See Less
1 Share

Sagent Pharmaceuticals, Inc. on November 19 announced the voluntary nationwide recall of four lots of Levetiracetam Injection, USP, to the user level. The lack of container closure integrity, found in reserve sample vials may result in a non-sterile product.

Risk Statement: Intravenous administration of a product intended... See More to be sterile that is not sterile could result in serious systemic infections which may be life-threatening. 

To date, Sagent has not received reports of any product complaints or adverse events associated with this issue. Levetiracetam Injection, USP 500 mg per 5 mL, is used in the treatment of certain types of seizures and is packaged in a 5mL single-does vial. The Levetiracetam Injection, USP, label and affected lot numbers with Expiration Dates and NDC number can be found in the table below. 

Product: Levetiracetam Injection, USP / Lot Number: B0G85VB /Expiration Date: Jun-2022 / NDC Number: 25021-780-05 / Distribution Dates: May 2021 - August 2021.

Product: Levetiracetam Injection, USP / Lot Number: B0K88VA /Expiration Date: Sep-2022 / NDC Number: 25021-780-05 / Distribution Dates: March 2021 - November 2021.

Product: Levetiracetam Injection, USP / Lot Number: B0K89VA /Expiration Date: Sep-2022 / NDC Number: 25021-780-05 / Distribution Dates: August 2021 - November 2021.

Product: Levetiracetam Injection, USP / Lot Number: B1G194A /Expiration Date: Jun-2023 / NDC Number: 25021-780-05 / Distribution Dates: October 2021.

The product was distributed Nationwide from March to November  2021.

Company name: Sagent Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Brand name: Sagent
Product recalled: Levetiracetam Injection
Reason of the recall: Lack of sterility assurance
FDA Recall date: November 22, 2021

Check the full recall details on

Source: FDA
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